February 15, 2008 (HONG KONG) — China has exported more advanced weapon systems to Sudan.
TV video footage of a military parade during the 52nd anniversary of Sudanese independence last year shows that the country already had new-generation Chinese T96 and upgraded T59D main battle tanks and T92 wheeled infantry fighting vehicles fitted with Russian 2A72 30-mm cannon guns.
China acquired the technology from Russia to produce 2A72 30-mm cannon guns, which is believed to have been used to upgrade the Chinese PLA ground forces’ T86 infantry fighting vehicles, or IFVs. Installing 2A72 guns on T92 wheeled IFVs for export to Sudan is a recent development. So far the T-92 wheeled IFVs have been known to be provided only to the Chinese No.38 Group Army.
This appears to be the first time China has exported T92 wheeled IFVs and T96 MBTs to an African nation. The technological standard of this equipment is far superior to ground force equipment China has previously exported to Africa.
At the International Defense Exhibition and Conference 2007 held in Abu Dhabi last year, China introduced the upgraded variant of the T59D tank. African countries that are now using T59 tanks include Zambia and Tanzania.
In recent years, China has largely reinforced military cooperation with African countries through the strategy of trading oil for weapons. Both Sudan and Nigeria have purchased China-made F7M fighters. In 2005 Sudan exported to China 6.62 million tons of crude oil, about 5.2 percent of China’s total oil imports that year. China has a 40-percent stake in Sudan’s largest international oil consortium.
Other Chinese weapons currently in service in the Sudanese forces include Type 54 122-mm howitzers, Type 59-I 130-mm cannons, Type 81 122-mm rocket guns, Type 59 57-mm air-defense guns, mortars of different calibers, eight J-6 fighters and a number of J-7M fighters.
Sudan has also expressed interest in purchasing 12 Chinese FC1 fighters, and the two sides are now negotiating technical details of the deal. In 1996 Sudan purchased six F7M fighters from China, and another two Y8 transport aircraft are also in service. Western military observers believe that those Chinese weapons were paid for with Sudanese oil.
The Sudan military parade in 2007 had a strong Chinese color, as most of the armored weapons were from China. The same parade revealed that the Sudan air force had Chinese-made K8 military trainers. Three K8 trainers and three MiG-29s flew over the capital during the parade. Images from the parade have revealed to the world that the Sudanese army resembles a second Chinese Liberation Army.
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Bush Begins Six-Day Tour of Africa
16 Feb 2008
New York Times
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — Opening a six-day tour of Africa, President Bush defended on Saturday his decision not to visit violence-stricken nations like Kenya and Sudan, saying he wanted to focus on “success stories” like his programs to fight AIDS and malaria instead.
“This is a large place with a lot of nations, and no question everything is not perfect,” Mr. Bush said in a brief visit to Benin, before arriving Saturday evening here in the Tanzanian capital. “On the other hand, there’s a lot of great success stories, and the United States is pleased to be involved with those success stories.”
The stop in Benin makes Mr. Bush the first American president to visit that tiny West African nation of 7.86 million people. It was on his itinerary because it represents the kind of success stories Mr. Bush wants to highlight — how American foreign aid has helped improve water, schools, infrastructure and health care in some of the poorest nations in the world.
In 2006, Benin signed a five-year, $307 million agreement with the Millennium Challenge Corporation, created by Mr. Bush to assist nations that embrace democracy and free markets and commit to fighting corruption. Benin also benefits from America’s anti-malaria programs, as well as an education initiative that provides money to train teachers, build schools and buy textbooks.
So it was no surprise that Benin’s president, Thomas Yayi Bon, had high praise for Mr. Bush when the two appeared together for a short news conference at the airport in Cotonou, the country’s economic capital, while Air Force One refueled. Vowing that “everything that would stain democracy will be suppressed” under his leadership, the Benin president said Mr. Bush’s visit was an important symbol.
“Perhaps it’s a signal to us,” he said, adding of Mr. Bush, “Virtue means a lot to him.”
The White House is hoping that the Africa trip will remind not only Africans, but also Americans, that Mr. Bush has done more during his presidency than fight a controversial war with Iraq. Dar es Salaam was festooned with billboards bearing Mr. Bush’s likeness, including one on the road from the airport to downtown that blared, “We Cherish Democracy,” and another outside his hotel, the Kempinski, that announced, “Feel at Home.”
There were some undercurrents of resentment. Two thousand people protested here on Friday in advance of Mr. Bush’s arrival, waving signs that suggested he was a terrorist. And he cannot seem to avoid crisis elsewhere on the continent.
Before he left Washington, Mr. Bush said he would send Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Kenya, where post-election violence has claimed the lives of more than 1,000 people since late December. But at Saturday’s news conference, he was peppered with questions about why his administration was not taking a more active role, not only in Kenya but also Darfur, where 200,000 people have died and 2.5 million have been chased from their homes in an ethnic conflict that Mr. Bush has termed a genocide.
He said he had “a tough decision to make early on” about whether to send troops into Darfur, but had decided against doing so in favor of allowing African Union and United Nations peacekeeping troops to intervene. He also said he intended to bring up Darfur during his visit to Rwanda, where he planned to thank that country’s president for sending in peacekeeping troops — and remind Americans that the peacekeepers were trained by United States soldiers.
As to Kenya, Mr. Bush said Secretary Rice’s visit was “aimed at having a clear message that there be no violence and that there ought to be a power-sharing agreement.”
The former United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, has been in Kenya trying to negotiate a peace agreement between the two sides. Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen G. Hadley, told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday that Mr. Annan appeared to be “making incremental progress.”
Mr. Hadley said that Ms. Rice, who is traveling with the president, would spend only a few hours in Kenya. He described the visit as an opportunity “to show the president’s concern — but also get on the ground and help support Kofi Annan and maybe move things forward a little further and a little faster.”
New York Times
By SHERYL GAY STOLBERG
DAR ES SALAAM, Tanzania — Opening a six-day tour of Africa, President Bush defended on Saturday his decision not to visit violence-stricken nations like Kenya and Sudan, saying he wanted to focus on “success stories” like his programs to fight AIDS and malaria instead.
“This is a large place with a lot of nations, and no question everything is not perfect,” Mr. Bush said in a brief visit to Benin, before arriving Saturday evening here in the Tanzanian capital. “On the other hand, there’s a lot of great success stories, and the United States is pleased to be involved with those success stories.”
The stop in Benin makes Mr. Bush the first American president to visit that tiny West African nation of 7.86 million people. It was on his itinerary because it represents the kind of success stories Mr. Bush wants to highlight — how American foreign aid has helped improve water, schools, infrastructure and health care in some of the poorest nations in the world.
In 2006, Benin signed a five-year, $307 million agreement with the Millennium Challenge Corporation, created by Mr. Bush to assist nations that embrace democracy and free markets and commit to fighting corruption. Benin also benefits from America’s anti-malaria programs, as well as an education initiative that provides money to train teachers, build schools and buy textbooks.
So it was no surprise that Benin’s president, Thomas Yayi Bon, had high praise for Mr. Bush when the two appeared together for a short news conference at the airport in Cotonou, the country’s economic capital, while Air Force One refueled. Vowing that “everything that would stain democracy will be suppressed” under his leadership, the Benin president said Mr. Bush’s visit was an important symbol.
“Perhaps it’s a signal to us,” he said, adding of Mr. Bush, “Virtue means a lot to him.”
The White House is hoping that the Africa trip will remind not only Africans, but also Americans, that Mr. Bush has done more during his presidency than fight a controversial war with Iraq. Dar es Salaam was festooned with billboards bearing Mr. Bush’s likeness, including one on the road from the airport to downtown that blared, “We Cherish Democracy,” and another outside his hotel, the Kempinski, that announced, “Feel at Home.”
There were some undercurrents of resentment. Two thousand people protested here on Friday in advance of Mr. Bush’s arrival, waving signs that suggested he was a terrorist. And he cannot seem to avoid crisis elsewhere on the continent.
Before he left Washington, Mr. Bush said he would send Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to Kenya, where post-election violence has claimed the lives of more than 1,000 people since late December. But at Saturday’s news conference, he was peppered with questions about why his administration was not taking a more active role, not only in Kenya but also Darfur, where 200,000 people have died and 2.5 million have been chased from their homes in an ethnic conflict that Mr. Bush has termed a genocide.
He said he had “a tough decision to make early on” about whether to send troops into Darfur, but had decided against doing so in favor of allowing African Union and United Nations peacekeeping troops to intervene. He also said he intended to bring up Darfur during his visit to Rwanda, where he planned to thank that country’s president for sending in peacekeeping troops — and remind Americans that the peacekeepers were trained by United States soldiers.
As to Kenya, Mr. Bush said Secretary Rice’s visit was “aimed at having a clear message that there be no violence and that there ought to be a power-sharing agreement.”
The former United Nations secretary general, Kofi Annan, has been in Kenya trying to negotiate a peace agreement between the two sides. Mr. Bush’s national security adviser, Stephen G. Hadley, told reporters aboard Air Force One on Saturday that Mr. Annan appeared to be “making incremental progress.”
Mr. Hadley said that Ms. Rice, who is traveling with the president, would spend only a few hours in Kenya. He described the visit as an opportunity “to show the president’s concern — but also get on the ground and help support Kofi Annan and maybe move things forward a little further and a little faster.”
Ethiopian Officials Blame Puntland Leader for Insecurity
Garowe Online (Garowe)
NEWS
15 February 2008
Posted to the web 15 February 2008
ADDIS Ethiopian Foreign Ministry officials have blamed the leader of Somalia's Puntland region for rising insecurity during a meeting with interim Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf, confidential sources told Garowe Online.
The Ethiopian government officials spoke to President Yusuf at a meeting in the capital Addis Ababa with Puntland President Mohamud "Adde" Muse present, sources in Addis Ababa said.
The officials said insecurity in Puntland is having an adverse affect on stability in Ethiopia, especially in the Somali Regional State bordering the Puntland regions.
The Puntland administration was accused of "lax security" that allows Ethiopian rebel movements like the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) to use Puntland ports and coastline to land weapons and other materials.
Some officials in Puntland President Muse's government were accused of "taking bribes" from opponents of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's government, sources close to the meeting reported.
The Ethiopian foreign ministry officials also informed President Yusuf that they received a request for the deployment of Ethiopian troops in Puntland from Muse, but that the Ethiopian government "rejected" the request on grounds that insecurity in Puntland is a result of the region's leaders and not the public.
During the meeting, Ethiopian officials said their soldiers fighting in south Somalia have captured tons of weapons, some of which were originally donated to Puntland by the Ethiopian military but later sold in the black market.
Puntland has been one of Somalia's more stable regions since its formation in 1998, but the region has experienced an unprecedented rise in corruption and criminal activities since Muse came to power in 2005.
It is not clear what move the Ethiopian government wants President Yusuf to make in light of their complaints against the Puntland leader.
But many observers see Yusuf, the former Puntland strongman, as the region's de facto ruler long after his ascension to the Somali presidency.
NEWS
15 February 2008
Posted to the web 15 February 2008
ADDIS Ethiopian Foreign Ministry officials have blamed the leader of Somalia's Puntland region for rising insecurity during a meeting with interim Somali President Abdullahi Yusuf, confidential sources told Garowe Online.
The Ethiopian government officials spoke to President Yusuf at a meeting in the capital Addis Ababa with Puntland President Mohamud "Adde" Muse present, sources in Addis Ababa said.
The officials said insecurity in Puntland is having an adverse affect on stability in Ethiopia, especially in the Somali Regional State bordering the Puntland regions.
The Puntland administration was accused of "lax security" that allows Ethiopian rebel movements like the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) to use Puntland ports and coastline to land weapons and other materials.
Some officials in Puntland President Muse's government were accused of "taking bribes" from opponents of Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's government, sources close to the meeting reported.
The Ethiopian foreign ministry officials also informed President Yusuf that they received a request for the deployment of Ethiopian troops in Puntland from Muse, but that the Ethiopian government "rejected" the request on grounds that insecurity in Puntland is a result of the region's leaders and not the public.
During the meeting, Ethiopian officials said their soldiers fighting in south Somalia have captured tons of weapons, some of which were originally donated to Puntland by the Ethiopian military but later sold in the black market.
Puntland has been one of Somalia's more stable regions since its formation in 1998, but the region has experienced an unprecedented rise in corruption and criminal activities since Muse came to power in 2005.
It is not clear what move the Ethiopian government wants President Yusuf to make in light of their complaints against the Puntland leader.
But many observers see Yusuf, the former Puntland strongman, as the region's de facto ruler long after his ascension to the Somali presidency.
Ethiopia urges strong UN action against foe Eritrea
By Tsegaye Tadesse
Reuters, Feb 16 Reuters
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - Ethiopia urged the United Nations on Saturday to take strong measures against "rogue regime" Eritrea, which Addis Ababa said was undermining the world body by cutting off food supplies to its troops.
On Friday, a U.N. spokeswoman said Eritrea had cut off food supplies to U.N. troops along a border with Ethiopia, with whom it fought a two-year war that killed some 70,000 people.
She also said Asmara had allowed only about half a dozen U.N. vehicles to cross into Ethiopia as part of a pull-out forced by an earlier blockade of fuel supplies by Eritrea, which no longer wants the UNMEE peacekeepers.
"The United Nations must not be intimidated by a rogue regime in Eritrea, which has hindered the temporary relocation of UNMEE in Ethiopia", said Ethiopia's Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Wahade Belay.
"The United Nations' prestige and its role as protector of peace and security in the world has been greatly undermined," he told Reuters.
"The world body should take strong action against the rogue regime in Eritrea as a lesson to others which may attempt to violate its charter and undermine its peacekeeping role."
At an emergency session, the U.N. Security Council condemned Eritrea's "lack of cooperation", held it responsible for the mission's safety and demanded it end all restrictions or face unspecified action.
Asmara dismissed the charges and accused U.N. peacekeeping officials and the Secretary-General's office of making "unwarranted accusations" and "distorting the reality" of the U.N. mission.
Insinuations that UNMEE troops in Eritrea were in danger were "unfounded", Eritrea's foreign ministry said in a statement.
The 1,700-strong U.N. mission started work in 2000 at the end of Ethiopia and Eritrea's two-year border war, and has been stationed in a 15.5-mile (25-km) buffer zone inside Eritrea.
Asmara's ties with the United Nations have sharply deteriorated since an independent boundary commission marked the 1,000 km (620 mile) border by map coordinates in November.
Eritrea, which accepted the border ruling, says the United Nations should now focus on ending Ethiopia's "occupation" of its territory. Ethiopia has rejected the ruling, calling for more dialogue.
Reuters, Feb 16 Reuters
ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) - Ethiopia urged the United Nations on Saturday to take strong measures against "rogue regime" Eritrea, which Addis Ababa said was undermining the world body by cutting off food supplies to its troops.
On Friday, a U.N. spokeswoman said Eritrea had cut off food supplies to U.N. troops along a border with Ethiopia, with whom it fought a two-year war that killed some 70,000 people.
She also said Asmara had allowed only about half a dozen U.N. vehicles to cross into Ethiopia as part of a pull-out forced by an earlier blockade of fuel supplies by Eritrea, which no longer wants the UNMEE peacekeepers.
"The United Nations must not be intimidated by a rogue regime in Eritrea, which has hindered the temporary relocation of UNMEE in Ethiopia", said Ethiopia's Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Wahade Belay.
"The United Nations' prestige and its role as protector of peace and security in the world has been greatly undermined," he told Reuters.
"The world body should take strong action against the rogue regime in Eritrea as a lesson to others which may attempt to violate its charter and undermine its peacekeeping role."
At an emergency session, the U.N. Security Council condemned Eritrea's "lack of cooperation", held it responsible for the mission's safety and demanded it end all restrictions or face unspecified action.
Asmara dismissed the charges and accused U.N. peacekeeping officials and the Secretary-General's office of making "unwarranted accusations" and "distorting the reality" of the U.N. mission.
Insinuations that UNMEE troops in Eritrea were in danger were "unfounded", Eritrea's foreign ministry said in a statement.
The 1,700-strong U.N. mission started work in 2000 at the end of Ethiopia and Eritrea's two-year border war, and has been stationed in a 15.5-mile (25-km) buffer zone inside Eritrea.
Asmara's ties with the United Nations have sharply deteriorated since an independent boundary commission marked the 1,000 km (620 mile) border by map coordinates in November.
Eritrea, which accepted the border ruling, says the United Nations should now focus on ending Ethiopia's "occupation" of its territory. Ethiopia has rejected the ruling, calling for more dialogue.
UN troops 'trapped' in Eritrea
BBC, Feb 15, 2008
The United Nations has condemned Eritrea, accusing it of preventing hundreds of peacekeepers from crossing from Eritrea into Ethiopia.
The UN ordered its regional force to withdraw to Ethiopia after the Eritrean government cut off its fuel supplies.
But the UN says only six vehicles have been allowed to leave, some troops have been threatened at gunpoint and now their rations have been stopped.
Eritrea denied blocking their departure saying its supplies had simply run out.
In an emergency session on Friday, the 15-member UN Security Council expressed "deep concern about the impediments and logistical constraints" faced by the force.
Jean-Marie Guehenno, head of the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, told reporters: "It's a very serious situation. We're running out of fuel, we're running out of food."
Losing patience
The UN peacekeepers were sent eight years ago to monitor a border security zone after the war which killed tens of thousands of people between Eritrea and Ethiopia in the late 1990s.
TENSE BORDER
Dec 2000: Peace agreement
Apr 2002: Border ruling
Mar 2003: Ethiopian complaint over Badme rejected
Oct 2005: Eritrea restricts peacekeepers' activities
Nov 2005: UN sanctions threat if no compliance with 2000 deal
Dec 2007: Deadline to demarcate the border expires without agreement
Dec 2007: Eritrea cuts fuel supplies to the UN
Feb 2008: UN warns of a return to war as it withdraws from Eritrea
The Eritreans are angry about Ethiopia's failure to hand over the disputed town of Badme - which a boundary commission set up after the war awarded to Eritrea - and want the international community to put pressure on Ethiopia to withdraw.
Having lost patience with the UN, Eritrea cut off fuel supplies to the UN's 1,400 troops and 200 military observers.
The BBC's Elizabeth Blunt in Ethiopia says Eritrea may be hoping the UN force will abandon some vehicles and communication equipment.
But the Eritrean ambassador to the UN, Araya Desta, told the BBC his country simply did not have any more supplies to spare.
He added that the Security Council's reaction had been "outrageous".
"To victimise the victim is ridiculous and shameful for the council," Mr Desta said.
The government in Addis Ababa said it would co-operate in letting the troops relocate to northern Ethiopia.
The United Nations has condemned Eritrea, accusing it of preventing hundreds of peacekeepers from crossing from Eritrea into Ethiopia.
The UN ordered its regional force to withdraw to Ethiopia after the Eritrean government cut off its fuel supplies.
But the UN says only six vehicles have been allowed to leave, some troops have been threatened at gunpoint and now their rations have been stopped.
Eritrea denied blocking their departure saying its supplies had simply run out.
In an emergency session on Friday, the 15-member UN Security Council expressed "deep concern about the impediments and logistical constraints" faced by the force.
Jean-Marie Guehenno, head of the UN Department of Peacekeeping Operations, told reporters: "It's a very serious situation. We're running out of fuel, we're running out of food."
Losing patience
The UN peacekeepers were sent eight years ago to monitor a border security zone after the war which killed tens of thousands of people between Eritrea and Ethiopia in the late 1990s.
TENSE BORDER
Dec 2000: Peace agreement
Apr 2002: Border ruling
Mar 2003: Ethiopian complaint over Badme rejected
Oct 2005: Eritrea restricts peacekeepers' activities
Nov 2005: UN sanctions threat if no compliance with 2000 deal
Dec 2007: Deadline to demarcate the border expires without agreement
Dec 2007: Eritrea cuts fuel supplies to the UN
Feb 2008: UN warns of a return to war as it withdraws from Eritrea
The Eritreans are angry about Ethiopia's failure to hand over the disputed town of Badme - which a boundary commission set up after the war awarded to Eritrea - and want the international community to put pressure on Ethiopia to withdraw.
Having lost patience with the UN, Eritrea cut off fuel supplies to the UN's 1,400 troops and 200 military observers.
The BBC's Elizabeth Blunt in Ethiopia says Eritrea may be hoping the UN force will abandon some vehicles and communication equipment.
But the Eritrean ambassador to the UN, Araya Desta, told the BBC his country simply did not have any more supplies to spare.
He added that the Security Council's reaction had been "outrageous".
"To victimise the victim is ridiculous and shameful for the council," Mr Desta said.
The government in Addis Ababa said it would co-operate in letting the troops relocate to northern Ethiopia.
UN council delays debate on Somalia peacekeeping
15 Feb 2008 21:02:44 GMT
Source: Reuters
By Patrick Worsnip
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Backed by the African Union, Somalia's government appealed to the United Nations on Friday to send a peacekeeping force there, but the Security Council delayed a response until next month, diplomats said.
They said the council is still awaiting a delayed report from Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on peacekeeping prospects in the lawless Horn of Africa country, which currently has only a small AU force consisting mainly of Ugandans.
Somalia's U.N. ambassador, Elmi Ahmed Duale, called on the council to follow up on its request to Ban late last year to develop contingency plans for a possible U.N. operation.
"In order to avoid the deterioration of the security situation in Somalia we urge the Security Council, in no uncertain terms, to accelerate the implementation" of that request, he said.
The AU's chief U.N. observer, Lila Ratsifandrihamanana, reminded the council that a recent AU summit in Addis Ababa had also urged that a U.N. force replace the AU mission, known as AMISOM.
But both Ban and the council have been wary of sending U.N. troops to Somalia, scene of daily shootouts and mortar battles between Islamist insurgents, various warlords and Ethiopian-backed Somali government forces.
Talk of outside intervention in Somalia is still colored by the killing of U.S. troops there in 1993 in the "Black Hawk Down" battle that marked the beginning of the end for a U.S.-U.N. peacekeeping force.
"The sense of the council is that ... the council would attend to this issue as soon as it receives the report of the secretary-general," Panamanian Ambassador Ricardo Alberto Arias, the current council president, told reporters.
Diplomats said the report was expected on March 10. They said it had been delayed by difficulties encountered by two U.N. fact-finding missions to Somalia, on whose work it will be based.
They said, however, that U.N. authorization for AMISOM was likely to be renewed next week. The AU mission consists of two Ugandan battalions, totaling some 1,600 troops, and an advance party of 192 Burundians.
Somalia has been in turmoil since the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. The U.N. refugee agency last month described the conflict there, which has uprooted more than 1 million people, as the world's most pressing humanitarian crisis, worse even than Sudan's Darfur region. (Editing by Stuart Grudgings)
Source: Reuters
By Patrick Worsnip
UNITED NATIONS, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Backed by the African Union, Somalia's government appealed to the United Nations on Friday to send a peacekeeping force there, but the Security Council delayed a response until next month, diplomats said.
They said the council is still awaiting a delayed report from Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on peacekeeping prospects in the lawless Horn of Africa country, which currently has only a small AU force consisting mainly of Ugandans.
Somalia's U.N. ambassador, Elmi Ahmed Duale, called on the council to follow up on its request to Ban late last year to develop contingency plans for a possible U.N. operation.
"In order to avoid the deterioration of the security situation in Somalia we urge the Security Council, in no uncertain terms, to accelerate the implementation" of that request, he said.
The AU's chief U.N. observer, Lila Ratsifandrihamanana, reminded the council that a recent AU summit in Addis Ababa had also urged that a U.N. force replace the AU mission, known as AMISOM.
But both Ban and the council have been wary of sending U.N. troops to Somalia, scene of daily shootouts and mortar battles between Islamist insurgents, various warlords and Ethiopian-backed Somali government forces.
Talk of outside intervention in Somalia is still colored by the killing of U.S. troops there in 1993 in the "Black Hawk Down" battle that marked the beginning of the end for a U.S.-U.N. peacekeeping force.
"The sense of the council is that ... the council would attend to this issue as soon as it receives the report of the secretary-general," Panamanian Ambassador Ricardo Alberto Arias, the current council president, told reporters.
Diplomats said the report was expected on March 10. They said it had been delayed by difficulties encountered by two U.N. fact-finding missions to Somalia, on whose work it will be based.
They said, however, that U.N. authorization for AMISOM was likely to be renewed next week. The AU mission consists of two Ugandan battalions, totaling some 1,600 troops, and an advance party of 192 Burundians.
Somalia has been in turmoil since the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. The U.N. refugee agency last month described the conflict there, which has uprooted more than 1 million people, as the world's most pressing humanitarian crisis, worse even than Sudan's Darfur region. (Editing by Stuart Grudgings)
Friday, February 15, 2008
Djibouti in eye of the storm
By Dominic Moran in Tel Aviv for ISN Security Watch (15/02/08)
Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh maintains a strong hold on the reins of power after supporting parties swept national legislative election last week.
The president, whose People's Rally for Progress (RPP) has held uninterrupted power since independence in 1977, faces little obvious pressure either domestically or from key allies the US and France, as the US seeks to cement its expanded military presence in the strategically important Horn of Africa state.
Nevertheless, challenges lie ahead for the government with key trade partner Ethiopia engaged in saber rattling toward Eritrea and strong economic growth failing to combat poverty.
Easing tensions
Civil war broke out in Djibouti in late 1991 with the minority Afar group, which constitutes just over one-third of the population, rebelling against the political predominance of the Somali-speaking Issa tribe in the then one-party state.
In 1994, most elements of the rebel Afar Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD) signed on to a peace deal involving the ethnic division of cabinet posts. Sporadic violence continued until 2000-2001 when a holdout radical FRUD faction signed peace deals with the government.
"It was not a war between Somali and Afar. It was the Afar who said, 'We have no power, we are not in the government, there is discrimination against Afar,'" Jean-Luc Charles, a spokesperson for the Association for Respect of Human Rights in Djibouti (ARDHD), told ISN Security Watch.
The majority FRUD faction is now a member, with the RPP, of the five-party Union for the Presidential Majority coalition, which has divvied up the 65-seat National Assembly along ethnic lines.
Nevertheless, Issa reportedly retain a firm hold on employment within the civil service and key positions within the RPP.
According to Charles, in the 2000-2001 peace deal the government pledged to "give the same facilities to the Afar as to the other people."
"This agreement was not respected and President Guelleh still continues to take all the power, all the money and does not give anything to the north region where the Afar are a majority," Charles alleged. "There is no money for schools; no money for education; no money for health. So this region is very undeveloped."
Boycott
Constitutional and electoral reforms have led to the elaboration of a sharply delimited multiparty democratic system in Djibouti, with the political opposition kept firmly from the centers of power.
Ismail Guedi Hared, the head of the opposition Union for a Democratic Alternative (UAD) coalition, called on supporters to boycott this month's parliamentary election, charging that the poll was designed for and by the ruling coalition.
"Before the election the opposition said, "We will not go to the election because we have no chance because everything is falsified," Charles noted.
The opposition boycott followed UAD decisions not to stand candidates in the April 2005 presidential and March 2006 regional elections. The boycotts came after the UAD failed to win a single seat in the previous 2003 Assembly election, despite snaring just under 38 percent of the vote.
The established first-past-the-post electoral system gives the ruling coalition a lock on government through ensuring that the opposition does not receive places in parliament commensurate with its level of public support.
The UAD claims that prominent members of all three constituent parties and of the Djiboutian League of Human Rights (LDDHH) were placed under house arrest ahead of the elections, stymieing efforts to hold a major rally.
The government is resisting opposition calls for a proportional voting system. Prime Minister Dileita Mohamed Dileita told Agence France Presse recently that this may result in "upsetting the tribal balance" in Djibouti. "We have the example of our neighbor Somalia and we don't want that," he said.
Fraying ties?
The continuance of RPP rule has provided a stability sorely lacking in neighboring states and crucial to the emergence of Djibouti as a regional player in the so-called war on terror. This stability is premised, in part, on a Franco-Djiboutian accord guaranteeing French protection from foreign incursions.
The Guelleh government currently plays host to around 3,000 French troops and has long served as a primary base for the French Foreign Legion. There is also a small French naval facility at Djibouti port.
However, the close ties enjoyed under the Jacques Chirac administration appear to be threatened both by a shift in French regional priorities towards other African states and the Gulf and a building crisis over the murder of a French judge in Djibouti.
An informed source tells ISN Security Watch that French priorities in eastern and central Africa have shifted toward Chad, Darfur and the Central African Republic where France is "a lead actor and very heavily involved." By comparison, France has allowed other states to take the lead in Somalia and Ethiopia.
Djibouti is taking France to the international court in The Hague in a bid to gain access to French files concerning the purported murder of French judge Bernard Borrel, whose charred body was discovered in 1995 in a ravine outside the Djiboutian capital, with a gunshot wound to the head. The French refusal to pass on the files and issuance of summonses against Djiboutian officials appears to indicate that French investigators put some stock in Borrel's widow's allegations of official Djiboutian complicity in her husband's death.
"As the Borrel case will be [tried] it will destroy the relationship between the two countries," Charles said.
Noting that French troops were reportedly being sent from Djibouti to a newly acquired base in Abu Dhabi, Charles said, "I think that France has taken the decision to leave Djibouti."
Counter-terrorism base
With Franco-Djiboutian ties possibly on the cusp of the largest shake-up since Djiboutian independence, the US appears poised to gradually replace Paris as the Guelleh government's primary foreign ally and guarantor.
The US presence in the Horn region has been bolstered significantly since 2002, reversing the largely hands-off approach taken since involvement in the UN's disastrous 1992-1995 UN Somali mission.
Djibouti has played a critical role, hosting a combined task force - a move that has led to the development of what the informed source characterized as "a special relationship with the US."
Djibouti City's Camp Lemonier serves as the base for the US Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA). Most members of the 1,800-strong task force appears to be engaged in fairly mundane activities - improving military-to-military ties, training members of allied regional militaries and humanitarian projects. However, the CJTF-HOA mission was clearly defined by its first commander as combating "transnational terrorist groups posing an imminent threat."
There have been unconfirmed reports of special operations raids in neighboring Somalia which may have been launched from Djibouti airport or from the multinational taskforce patrolling the nearby Somali coast and adjacent shipping lanes.
The naval taskforce is largely engaged in protecting the sea-lanes off Djibouti which, with around 60 percent of the world's maritime traffic, are inviting targets for Somali pirates, and in efforts to interdict the smuggling of Islamic militants and materiel.
The strategic importance of Djibouti to the US has grown in recent years with the establishment of close military-to-military ties with Ethiopia and the latter's war with Eritrea and invasion of Somalia. The US alleges that Eritrea is providing significant backing to the Islamic Courts Union in Somalia.
As elsewhere in Africa and the Pacific the US and France are increasingly competing for influence in Djibouti with China.
China's Assistant Foreign Minister Zhai Jun signed an economic and technological cooperation pact with Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf following talks in Djibouti City last month.
This competition for influence, alongside a shift in US priorities after 2001, has meant that there is little pressure on the Guelleh government to move forward with democratic reforms.
"I don't think there is a very heavy, serious [US] push on reform. The emphasis on keeping the government happy and stable is paramount there for the US government," the informed source argued.
Regional ructions
Djibouti was the big winner in the 1998-2000 Ethiopian-Eritrean war becoming the only harbor for landlocked Ethiopia. The resultant exponential growth of throughput at Djibouti port, via the Addis-Adaba-Djibouti rail link, has become a mainstay of the economy.
However, the Guelleh administration has at times overplayed its hand through overcharging, and Ethiopia has begun to investigate the possibilities of using Berbera in Somaliland as an alternative port.
Chatham House's Horn of Africa specialist Sarah Healy told ISN Security Watch: "With the fallout between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Djibouti is needed far more by Ethiopia than it was before. So it is in a fairly good position there but it has to be careful of the potential for destabilization to come from Eritrea."
Without seeking a mediating role, Guelleh has sought to maintain friendly relations with Asmara since the resumption of ties broken off during the 1998-2000 Ethiopian-Eritrean war, recognizing the power imbalance that exists between Eritrea and Djibouti.
Referring to Djiboutian-Eritrean relations Healy said, "I think it is a thinner relationship than the one with Ethiopia but it is just about okay. Eritrea doesn't have good relations with any of its neighbors."
Djibouti has been largely insulated from the chaos in Somalia through the establishment of internationally-unrecognized Somaliland.
"I don't think Djibouti is very directly affected by the instability in Mogadishu," Healy said. "I think that they could be affected by what goes on in Somaliland which […] is quite stable at the moment and it appears to have good relations with Ethiopia."
Despite this, problems are brewing. The UN recently enjoined the Guelleh government to protect a burgeoning tide of asylum seekers from Somalia who have crossed the Djiboutian border, seeking passage to Yemen.
The Ethiopian invasion of Somalia has also provoked significant criticism amongst ethnic Somalis in Djibouti.
With few natural resources, 60 percent unemployment and domestic consumption falling 35 percent from 1999-2006, Djibouti now relies strongly on its greatly expanded economic ties with Ethiopia, banking sector and income from foreign military bases.
The primary threat to long-term stability appears to lie in the failure of the Guelleh administration to promote public welfare. This provides the socio-economic basis for deleterious shifts in trade and international relations to promote unrest and radicalization.
ISN Security Watch contacted the Djiboutian embassy in Washington D.C. to seek a response to opposition and interviewee allegations. No reply had been received by press time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Dominic Moran, based in Tel Aviv, is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East and the Director of Operations of ISA Consulting.
Religion and Conflict in Africa: With a Special Focus on East Africa
Terrorism in the Horn of Africa
Constitution of Djibouti – PRIA Document
Related External Links
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Djibouti, Djibouti
Djiboutian President Ismail Omar Guelleh maintains a strong hold on the reins of power after supporting parties swept national legislative election last week.
The president, whose People's Rally for Progress (RPP) has held uninterrupted power since independence in 1977, faces little obvious pressure either domestically or from key allies the US and France, as the US seeks to cement its expanded military presence in the strategically important Horn of Africa state.
Nevertheless, challenges lie ahead for the government with key trade partner Ethiopia engaged in saber rattling toward Eritrea and strong economic growth failing to combat poverty.
Easing tensions
Civil war broke out in Djibouti in late 1991 with the minority Afar group, which constitutes just over one-third of the population, rebelling against the political predominance of the Somali-speaking Issa tribe in the then one-party state.
In 1994, most elements of the rebel Afar Front for the Restoration of Unity and Democracy (FRUD) signed on to a peace deal involving the ethnic division of cabinet posts. Sporadic violence continued until 2000-2001 when a holdout radical FRUD faction signed peace deals with the government.
"It was not a war between Somali and Afar. It was the Afar who said, 'We have no power, we are not in the government, there is discrimination against Afar,'" Jean-Luc Charles, a spokesperson for the Association for Respect of Human Rights in Djibouti (ARDHD), told ISN Security Watch.
The majority FRUD faction is now a member, with the RPP, of the five-party Union for the Presidential Majority coalition, which has divvied up the 65-seat National Assembly along ethnic lines.
Nevertheless, Issa reportedly retain a firm hold on employment within the civil service and key positions within the RPP.
According to Charles, in the 2000-2001 peace deal the government pledged to "give the same facilities to the Afar as to the other people."
"This agreement was not respected and President Guelleh still continues to take all the power, all the money and does not give anything to the north region where the Afar are a majority," Charles alleged. "There is no money for schools; no money for education; no money for health. So this region is very undeveloped."
Boycott
Constitutional and electoral reforms have led to the elaboration of a sharply delimited multiparty democratic system in Djibouti, with the political opposition kept firmly from the centers of power.
Ismail Guedi Hared, the head of the opposition Union for a Democratic Alternative (UAD) coalition, called on supporters to boycott this month's parliamentary election, charging that the poll was designed for and by the ruling coalition.
"Before the election the opposition said, "We will not go to the election because we have no chance because everything is falsified," Charles noted.
The opposition boycott followed UAD decisions not to stand candidates in the April 2005 presidential and March 2006 regional elections. The boycotts came after the UAD failed to win a single seat in the previous 2003 Assembly election, despite snaring just under 38 percent of the vote.
The established first-past-the-post electoral system gives the ruling coalition a lock on government through ensuring that the opposition does not receive places in parliament commensurate with its level of public support.
The UAD claims that prominent members of all three constituent parties and of the Djiboutian League of Human Rights (LDDHH) were placed under house arrest ahead of the elections, stymieing efforts to hold a major rally.
The government is resisting opposition calls for a proportional voting system. Prime Minister Dileita Mohamed Dileita told Agence France Presse recently that this may result in "upsetting the tribal balance" in Djibouti. "We have the example of our neighbor Somalia and we don't want that," he said.
Fraying ties?
The continuance of RPP rule has provided a stability sorely lacking in neighboring states and crucial to the emergence of Djibouti as a regional player in the so-called war on terror. This stability is premised, in part, on a Franco-Djiboutian accord guaranteeing French protection from foreign incursions.
The Guelleh government currently plays host to around 3,000 French troops and has long served as a primary base for the French Foreign Legion. There is also a small French naval facility at Djibouti port.
However, the close ties enjoyed under the Jacques Chirac administration appear to be threatened both by a shift in French regional priorities towards other African states and the Gulf and a building crisis over the murder of a French judge in Djibouti.
An informed source tells ISN Security Watch that French priorities in eastern and central Africa have shifted toward Chad, Darfur and the Central African Republic where France is "a lead actor and very heavily involved." By comparison, France has allowed other states to take the lead in Somalia and Ethiopia.
Djibouti is taking France to the international court in The Hague in a bid to gain access to French files concerning the purported murder of French judge Bernard Borrel, whose charred body was discovered in 1995 in a ravine outside the Djiboutian capital, with a gunshot wound to the head. The French refusal to pass on the files and issuance of summonses against Djiboutian officials appears to indicate that French investigators put some stock in Borrel's widow's allegations of official Djiboutian complicity in her husband's death.
"As the Borrel case will be [tried] it will destroy the relationship between the two countries," Charles said.
Noting that French troops were reportedly being sent from Djibouti to a newly acquired base in Abu Dhabi, Charles said, "I think that France has taken the decision to leave Djibouti."
Counter-terrorism base
With Franco-Djiboutian ties possibly on the cusp of the largest shake-up since Djiboutian independence, the US appears poised to gradually replace Paris as the Guelleh government's primary foreign ally and guarantor.
The US presence in the Horn region has been bolstered significantly since 2002, reversing the largely hands-off approach taken since involvement in the UN's disastrous 1992-1995 UN Somali mission.
Djibouti has played a critical role, hosting a combined task force - a move that has led to the development of what the informed source characterized as "a special relationship with the US."
Djibouti City's Camp Lemonier serves as the base for the US Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA). Most members of the 1,800-strong task force appears to be engaged in fairly mundane activities - improving military-to-military ties, training members of allied regional militaries and humanitarian projects. However, the CJTF-HOA mission was clearly defined by its first commander as combating "transnational terrorist groups posing an imminent threat."
There have been unconfirmed reports of special operations raids in neighboring Somalia which may have been launched from Djibouti airport or from the multinational taskforce patrolling the nearby Somali coast and adjacent shipping lanes.
The naval taskforce is largely engaged in protecting the sea-lanes off Djibouti which, with around 60 percent of the world's maritime traffic, are inviting targets for Somali pirates, and in efforts to interdict the smuggling of Islamic militants and materiel.
The strategic importance of Djibouti to the US has grown in recent years with the establishment of close military-to-military ties with Ethiopia and the latter's war with Eritrea and invasion of Somalia. The US alleges that Eritrea is providing significant backing to the Islamic Courts Union in Somalia.
As elsewhere in Africa and the Pacific the US and France are increasingly competing for influence in Djibouti with China.
China's Assistant Foreign Minister Zhai Jun signed an economic and technological cooperation pact with Djiboutian Foreign Minister Mahamoud Ali Youssouf following talks in Djibouti City last month.
This competition for influence, alongside a shift in US priorities after 2001, has meant that there is little pressure on the Guelleh government to move forward with democratic reforms.
"I don't think there is a very heavy, serious [US] push on reform. The emphasis on keeping the government happy and stable is paramount there for the US government," the informed source argued.
Regional ructions
Djibouti was the big winner in the 1998-2000 Ethiopian-Eritrean war becoming the only harbor for landlocked Ethiopia. The resultant exponential growth of throughput at Djibouti port, via the Addis-Adaba-Djibouti rail link, has become a mainstay of the economy.
However, the Guelleh administration has at times overplayed its hand through overcharging, and Ethiopia has begun to investigate the possibilities of using Berbera in Somaliland as an alternative port.
Chatham House's Horn of Africa specialist Sarah Healy told ISN Security Watch: "With the fallout between Ethiopia and Eritrea, Djibouti is needed far more by Ethiopia than it was before. So it is in a fairly good position there but it has to be careful of the potential for destabilization to come from Eritrea."
Without seeking a mediating role, Guelleh has sought to maintain friendly relations with Asmara since the resumption of ties broken off during the 1998-2000 Ethiopian-Eritrean war, recognizing the power imbalance that exists between Eritrea and Djibouti.
Referring to Djiboutian-Eritrean relations Healy said, "I think it is a thinner relationship than the one with Ethiopia but it is just about okay. Eritrea doesn't have good relations with any of its neighbors."
Djibouti has been largely insulated from the chaos in Somalia through the establishment of internationally-unrecognized Somaliland.
"I don't think Djibouti is very directly affected by the instability in Mogadishu," Healy said. "I think that they could be affected by what goes on in Somaliland which […] is quite stable at the moment and it appears to have good relations with Ethiopia."
Despite this, problems are brewing. The UN recently enjoined the Guelleh government to protect a burgeoning tide of asylum seekers from Somalia who have crossed the Djiboutian border, seeking passage to Yemen.
The Ethiopian invasion of Somalia has also provoked significant criticism amongst ethnic Somalis in Djibouti.
With few natural resources, 60 percent unemployment and domestic consumption falling 35 percent from 1999-2006, Djibouti now relies strongly on its greatly expanded economic ties with Ethiopia, banking sector and income from foreign military bases.
The primary threat to long-term stability appears to lie in the failure of the Guelleh administration to promote public welfare. This provides the socio-economic basis for deleterious shifts in trade and international relations to promote unrest and radicalization.
ISN Security Watch contacted the Djiboutian embassy in Washington D.C. to seek a response to opposition and interviewee allegations. No reply had been received by press time.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dr Dominic Moran, based in Tel Aviv, is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in the Middle East and the Director of Operations of ISA Consulting.
Religion and Conflict in Africa: With a Special Focus on East Africa
Terrorism in the Horn of Africa
Constitution of Djibouti – PRIA Document
Related External Links
Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), Djibouti, Djibouti
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