As Eritrea gives the US an awkward Choice, a new dynamic is set to unravel Mulugeta Alemu

Mulugeta Alemu
18 August 2007

The US has officially threatened to designate Eritrea as a terrorism sponsoring state. Those who are not accustomed to the world of diplomacy are often mesmerized by the length of time it takes to name countries what they truly are. US threat of calling Eritrea a terror sponsoring state is indeed long overdue. This is a remarkable victory for many of those who have exposed Eritrea’s disregard to peaceful co-existence in the region and its direct involvement in acts that claimed and continue to claim the lives of innumerable number of innocent civilians.

It is interesting that the US announcement follows the press release by Ethiopian officials that they have unravelled a massive plot by local rebel groups supported and sponsored by Eritrea to undertake terrorist activities in the country. But US’s announcement has not made any indication that these possible measures are related to what Eritrea is doing in Ethiopia. The Nazareth plot is not the first time where Eritrea’s involvement was clearly identified. The country’s rougeness knows no bound. Previously it has kidnapped foreign tourists and Ethiopian guides. It has supplied ammunitions and training for groups such as ONLF and OLF promoting their terror infested undertakings. The US and UK are yet to announce these groups as terrorist organisations.

So far Ethiopia’s call for the international community about Eritrea’s actions has largely fallen into deaf ears. There are some sinister assumptions which belie such inertia. Some governments and their so called think thanks consciously promoted the view that after all Eritrea is the victim of Ethiopia’s unwillingness to accept the ruling of Eritrea Ethiopia boundary Commission. This is in fact one massive white lie. Ethiopia has continued to make its announcements that it accepts the decision without any condition. Equally important is also the fact that even the UN Secretary General, in his latest report, has elaborated how Eritrea irreparably damaged and violated the TSZ which was established as a buffer zone between the two countries following the 1998-2000 war which Eritrea has spectacularly lost.

Eritrea’s adventure in Somalia has so far been an embarrassing state of affairs for the international community which wanted to support the TFG. The new government there is being challenged by the daily barrage of attacks by those who are generously sponsored by Eritrea. No one warned Eritrea. The impoverished small state of Eritrea has even declared its plan of calling a conference in September with the aim of establishing a parallel government in Somalia. Eritrea is doing the unknown. For some this is a result of Eritrea’s lack of skill in how to use diplomacy as a tool of promoting its interests. For others it is a height of maximum nervousness. However, there is a darker element to Eritrea’s design. This is a country that has done in the Sudan and even in Darfur what it has now done in Somalia. The reaction of the international community to Eritrea’s involvement in the Sudan never ending crisis was baffling. It continued to invite Eritrea in the high tables regarding the Sudan. We all remember how officials of the EU in Brussels, often immeasurably crude in their diplomacy, declared the president of Eritrea as an important peace maker in the region. Presient Issayas has always been the Horn’s pacemaker for all its woes. He was a good student of how the world is emerging and wanted to copy his moves in the Sudan to Somalia.

US’s threat of measure may never materialize. But it speaks mightily to the view that Eritrea’s unruly character is being checked. It has also brought to an end Eritrea’s game of playing the victim. So many things follow in US designation of terrorism. It makes it illegal for the US and other companies to sell arms. It forces the US Government to axe or terminate economic assistance even through the IMF and World Bank.

So much depends on how Eritrea conducts itself both in the short term and long term. Especially we need to see if it continues to supply arms to Somali terrorist and insurgents, which often happen while the American intelligence community is looking. The US will also focus whether the September meeting in Asmara will take place. But we know very well that Eritrea will publish one of those pitiful and infamous editorials in the website of its Ministry of Information castigating the US. This is very consistent with Eritrea’s patter of behaviour. The Eritrean government always believes that Eritrea’s future is in the hands of its mighty leader who had defined its independence against all odds. Eritrea establishment always believed that it had defeated the USSR in the Eritrean soil during the fight for independence. Another super-power is yet to beat.

In the grand scheme of things, Eritrea will probably play the ball carefully and may even use this to its advantage. The economically pressed regime continues to use its anti-American sentiment to rally support from its Middle East allies. In the global battle against terrorism and fundamental Islam, Eritrea is hesitantly slipping away while its population looks on unaware of what is happening. That should be a concern to all even while small victories are being won.